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Co-integration Study on the Relationship Between Regional Economic Development and Agglomeration of Rural E-commerce Industry

Author(s)

Yu Sun

Affiliation(s)

Department of Economics and Management, Shandong Vocational College of Science and Technology, Weifang, Shandong, China

Abstract

The correlation between regional economic development and the agglomeration of the rural e-commerce industry is continuously strengthening, yet the economic linkage between the two still requires thorough analysis. This study establishes econometric indicators for the development of rural e-commerce and the agglomeration of the rural e-commerce industry based on spatial econometric methods, and constructs a co-integration relationship model for the years 2009-2021. The research findings are as follows: From the analysis of co-integration rank, there exists a significant co-movement relationship between regional economic development and the agglomeration of the rural e-commerce industry. From the results of the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), there is a significant positive correction mechanism between regional economic development and the agglomeration of the rural e-commerce industry, indicating a strong positive correlation between the two. According to the Granger causality analysis results, regional economic development is the unilateral Granger cause of the agglomeration of the rural e-commerce industry, while other sequences reject the Granger causal relationship. From the perspective of forecast error variance decomposition, the prediction error of rural e-commerce spatial agglomeration mainly originates from itself and economic growth. Under a 10-period lag situation, the prediction error of rural e-commerce spatial agglomeration attributed to itself remains fixed at 65.19%, economic growth prediction error at 26.26%, and the impact of industrial structure at 8.55%. Regional economic development has become a core force driving the agglomeration of the rural e-commerce industry.

Keywords

Rural E-commerce; Regional Economic Development; Industry Agglomeration; Co-integration Analysis

References

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